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Analytical Studies > Analysis on the 2023 Hiroshima Summit
G7 Summits > 2023 Hiroshima Summit

G7 Aims for a Hat Trick:
The Triple Crisis of Climate Change, Biodiversity Loss and Pollution

Brittaney Warren, Director of Compliance Studies and Climate Change Research, G7 Research Group
May 13, 2023

In hockey when a player scores three goals in one game it is called a hat trick. In global environmental governance, if the player is the G7, then the three goals are to stop the triple crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution. G7 climate, energy and environment ministers first started referring to this as a "triple crisis" at their meeting on April 16, 2023, in Sapporo, Japan. This framing is being taken up by other G7 ministers. Thus far, the foreign ministers have adopted the triple crisis framing, dedicating a full section to it in their April 18 communiqué. What can this joint meeting tell us about what to expect from the G7 leaders themselves when they meet for three days from May 19 to 21? There are four key things the G7 leaders should carry over from their ministers, and do much more to build on them.

Skating in the Right Direction

The climate, energy and environment ministers produced a very lengthy and comprehensive communiqué. In it, they produced many commitments, signalled ample support to existing institutions and new partnerships, reaffirmed many medium- to long-term targets, and touched lightly on the G7's core values of democracy and individual liberty (or human rights). It is on these four themes that the G7 leaders can and should build when they meet in Hiroshima.

First, on commitments, the ministers made many commitments on the triple crisis, and more linkages among them and other socioeconomic subjects than before. The April ministerial meeting made an unprecedented 343 discrete, politically binding commitments in its communiqué. This continued a steadily rising trend since 2019 (see Appendix A). In 2019 environment ministers made 131 commitments. After US president Donald Trump abandoned hosting a ministerial in 2020, under the UK's presidency in 2021 G7 climate and environment ministers made 183 commitments and in 2022 in Germany the climate, energy and environment ministers made 196. Thus between 2019 and 2023, G7 ministers made a total of 853 joint energy, climate and environment commitments. These five years alone generated more commitments than the previous 26 years combined (since the environment ministers started meeting in 1992), which generated 518 in all.

Although there is not a strong causal relationship between the number of commitments made and members' subsequent compliance with them, the higher number of commitments shows a more comprehensive and synergistic agenda across and beyond the historically highly siloed sectors of the climate, energy and the environment. A key linkage at the April 16 ministerial meeting was the impact of the war on Ukraine on energy and environmental infrastructure, destruction of land and marine areas, and contamination of forests. Ministers made links with the fashion, tourism, agriculture, water and oceans, labour, and health sectors. There was also rising synergy among the expanding joint meetings: before 2021 only the environment ministers met (with two exceptions in 2007 and 2018), in 2021 the climate ministers were added, and in 2022 the energy ministers were added too.

Second, on cooperation and partnerships, the ministers showed strong support for the multilateral United Nations systems and for new partnerships. At the 2023 meeting's institutional development of global governance, the ministers acknowledged internal G7 bodies and outside institutions in 27 of their commitments, compared to 13 in 2022. At the 2023 meeting, the climate change, energy and environment ministers upheld the UN as the core outside institution to support. This included the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the UN Convention on Biodiversity (UNCBD) and the UN Environment Programme under the UN Environment Assembly, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. Other UN mentions included the UN Water Conference, the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030), the UN Forum on Forests, the UN System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, the UN High-Level Meeting on Antimicrobial Resistance and the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas.

Added to these were references to the International Seabed Authority on deep sea mining, the International Labour Organization on a just transition, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and the G20 Global Land Initiative to implement Sustainable Development Goal 15.3 on life on land.

Internally, within their commitments, the G7 ministers referenced the G7 Ocean Deal, G7 2030 Nature Compact, the G7 Alliance on Resource Efficiency and the Climate Club.

Lastly, the ministers committed to continue efforts to implement just energy transition partnerships.

Third, on targets, the ministers reaffirmed many medium- and long-term ones on each of climate, biodiversity and pollution. On the climate crisis the ministers committed to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 in order to keep a limit of 1.5°C; to reduce methane emissions by at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030; to predominantly or fully decarbonize the power sector by 2035; to eliminate inefficient fossil fuel subsidies by 2026; to achieve "deep global emissions reductions" in the 2020s, 2030s and 2040s; to work toward gender equality and diversity in the clean energy sector by 2030; to achieve a highly decarbonized road sector by 2030 and net-zero road sector by 2050; to achieve lifecycle zero emissions from international shipping by 2050; to mobilize USD 100 billion annually in climate finance through to 2025 aiming to fully meet the goal in 2023; and to accelerate efforts to double climate finance for adaptation from 2019 levels by 2025.

On biodiversity loss, the ministers committed to reverse biodiversity loss by 2030; to protect, conserve, restore and maintain at least 30% of coastal and marine areas by 2030; to "substantially increase" the area of natural ecosystems by 2050; and to "substantially increase" financing for nature-based solutions by 2025.

On pollution, the ministers committed to implement Target 7 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which aims to reduce pollution risks and the negative impact of pollution from all sources, by 2030. They also committed to reduce additional plastic pollution to zero by 2040.

The ministers also committed to revise or update their national biodiversity strategies and action plans and to "rapidly implement domestic mitigation measures aimed at achieving" climate targets.

Fourth, on democracy and human rights, the ministers made a few links in their commitments. There were three references to transparency and to human rights as countries move toward net-zero, "nature positive" and pollution-free global supply chains. There were two references to transparency in climate financing, one regarding inefficient fossil fuel subsidy phase-outs and one on reporting updated strategies to the UNFCCC.

They Shoot, They Miss

The G7 climate, energy and environment ministers thus laid a solid foundation for the G7 leaders at their Hiroshima Summit. But the leaders need to take this work much further if they want to meet their own targets and do their fair share of halting the triple crisis that their ministers clearly see. Currently, the world is on track to far surpass the 1.5°C target. Meeting it is contingent on whether countries implement their climate plans and whether developed countries give financial support to developing ones.

Since 1975, G7 members' compliance with their own G7 summit climate commitments has averaged 74%. Compliance with their climate finance commitments is 68%. Among the commitments with the lowest compliance is the commitment to engage with civil society, with 50%, and another to support a least developed or developing country, with 45%. Compliance with commitments to engage with the private sector has been much higher. Within the context of climate change, it is critical to engage with groups that have less power, produce the least emissions and are often on the frontlines of the triple crisis.

Improving the Score

There are things the G7 can do to improve its performance. For climate change, compliance is higher with commitments that include short-term targets of one year or less and with those that reference the UN. Overall, across all subjects, compliance is higher with commitments that reference democracy or human rights than with those that do not.

In order to improve compliance with the Hiroshima Summit's commitments, and thus improve its impact, G7 leaders need to build on the climate, energy and environment ministers' meeting and strengthen their commitments by doing the following:

On linkages, carry over the links their ministers made between emissions and pollution with key high-polluting sectors, including industrial agriculture, and the associated co-benefits of acting on those links, such as improved health and well-being due to lowered emissions and thus less air pollution. They should also acknowledge that the wealthiest 20% of the population creates the most emissions and pollution, and acknowledge what and who the lowest polluting sectors and populations are, including the care economy, the bottom 80% of the global population and Indigenous peoples.

On multilateral cooperation and partnerships, carry over their ministers' commitment to continue advancing just transition partnerships and those supporting the broader UN system. The "G6" + the European Union should call for the United States to finally become a full party to the UNCBD. The G7 should also guarantee the full free, prior and informed consent of Indigenous peoples and other local communities as its members seek to expand onshore and offshore mining for critical minerals.

On targets and plans, carry over their ministers' medium- and long-term targets, but add shorter-term benchmarks and put money behind each goal. The G7 should further ensure the terms it uses are clearly defined, unlike the poorly defined "inefficient" fossil fuels, and ensure that languate such as "unabated" coal, oil and gas does not serve as a loophole to facilitate business-as-usual over the long term. The G7 needs to commit fully to ending subsidies for the highest polluting sectors and shifting them to the lowest polluting ones, while ensuring justice for workers as well as the poor and marginalized.

On democracy and human rights, carry over their ministers' commitments to improve transparency and human rights in supply chains and transparency in climate and energy financing. G7 leaders should add commitments recognizing the spread of dis/misinformation is a barrier to effective climate action. They should create an official level body (as research suggests that doing so can lead to higher compliance) to look into the effects of climate denialism and fossil fuel lobbying against climate action. They should make recommendations on how they can address this barrier domestically and as a united front.

Conclusion

Thus, as at the climate, energy and environment ministers' meeting in Sapporo, at Hiroshima G7 leaders will likely make many climate, biodiversity and pollution commitments, and link these crises with key socioeconomic issues, such as gender equality. They will strongly support the UN multilateral system and partnerships among and beyond the G7. They will reaffirm many medium- and long-term targets, as well as principles of transparency for climate finance and subsidies and for human rights in supply chains. But to meet the growing number of goals and pull its weight, the G7 must do much, much more and fast.

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Appendix A: G7 Environment Ministers' Commitments ↩

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Brittaney Warren is director of compliance studies and director of climate change research for the G7 Research Group, the G20 Research Group and the BRICS Research Group at the University of Toronto. She is co-author of Reconfiguring the Global Governance of Climate Change, with John Kirton and Ella Kokotsis. She has also published on links between climate and health, and on accountability measures to improve summit performance. She holds a master's degree in environmental studies from York University.

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