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Analytical Studies

2003 Sea Island Interim Compliance Results

Professor John Kirton, Dr. Ella Kokotsis and the
University of Toronto G8 Research Group

February 28, 2005

The 2004 Sea Island Interim Compliance Report, which reviews progress made on selected commitments set out at the 2004 Sea Island Summit, is now available.

Preface
Introduction
Table A: 2004 Sea Island Interim Compliance Scores
Table B: 2004 Sea Island Interim Compliance Scores,
with reference to the Indian Ocean Tsunami
Bibliography on Compliance with G8 Commitments
Sponsors

Download the full 2004 Sea Island Interim Compliance Report (PDF, 210 pages)
• Introduction [PDF]
• Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative (two commitments) [PDF]
• World Economy [PDF]
• Trade (two commitments) [PDF]
• Energy [PDF]
• Environment [PDF]
• Nonproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction [PDF]
• Terrorist Financing [PDF]
• Transnational Crime, Transparency and Corruption [PDF]
• Transport Security [PDF]
• Debt Relief [PDF]
• Financing Development [PDF]
• Infectious Diseases (two commitments) [PDF]
• Peace Support Operations in Africa [PDF]
• Famine and Food Security in Africa [PDF]
• Regional Security (Darfur) [PDF]
• Appendix A: Priority Commitments [PDF]
• Appendix B: Asian Tsunami Assistance [PDF]
• Appendix C: Bibliography [PDF]

Preface

Each year since 1996, the G8 Research Group has produced a compliance report on the progress made by the G8 member countries in meeting the commitments issued at each leaders’ summit. Since 2002, the group has published an interim report, timed to assess progress at the transition between one country’s year as host and the next. These reports, which monitor each country’s efforts on a carefully chosen selection of the many commitments announced at the end of each summit, are offered to the general public and to policy makers, academics, civil society, the media and interested citizens around the world in an effort to make the work of the G8 more transparent and accessible, and to provide scientific data to enable meaningful analysis of this unique and informal institution. The draft is available at the G8 Information Centre at <www.g8.utoronto.ca>.

The G8 Research Group is an independent organization based at the University of Toronto. Founded in 1987, it is an international network of scholars, professionals and students interested in the activities of the G8. The group oversees the G8 Information Centre, which publishes, free of charge, analysis and research on the G8 as well as makes available official documents issued by the G8.

The work of the G8 Research Group would not be possible without the dedication of many people around the world. In particular, this report is the product of a team of energetic and hard-working analysts directed by Dr. Ella Kokotsis, Director of Analytical Research, and Anthony Prakash Navaneelan.

The G8 Research Group encourages responses to this report. Any comments or questions should be directed to <g8@utoronto.ca>. Indeed, we are grateful to the many individuals from many communities who responded to our invitation to comment on an earlier draft of this report. Responsibility for its contents lies exclusively with the authors and analysts of the G8 Research Group.

John Kirton
Director
G8 Research Group
Toronto, Canada

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Introduction

The University of Toronto’s G8 Research Group has completed its third annual Interim Compliance Report. This report is based on the results from June 2004 to January 2005 of G8 members’ compliance with their priority commitments at the 2004 G8 Sea Island Summit, which took place on June 8-10, 2004. This six-month period allows for the assessment of compliance with the summit’s priority commitments at about the time when the summit hosting responsibility changed on January 1, 2005, from the United States to the United Kingdom.

A summary of the interim compliance scores is available in Table A, with an individual analytical assessment by country and issue area below. Table B provides an updated set of compliance scores based on the inclusion of an additional priority commitment made by the G7 Finance Ministers statement of January 7, 2005, regarding tsunami relief efforts. For the purpose of this interim report, however, compliance with the tsunami commitment is offered for informational purposes only and does not factor into the overall interim compliance scores. Although the final compliance report – which will be published just prior to the 2005 Gleneagles Summit – will provide a more detailed and comprehensive assessment of the 2004 Sea Island scores, this report offers some preliminary observations based on the interim results.

This report spans a record 18 priority issue areas, including two priority commitments apiece from the issue areas of the Broader Middle East and North Africa (BMENA) Initiative, Trade and Infectious Diseases. Each commitment is surveyed across all G8 countries plus the European Union. Only two "not applicable" (n/a) scores appear; one in relation to a trade commitment directed at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and a second in response to Asian Tsunami Assistance. In the first instance, Russia does not belong to the WTO and as such, its score is exempt from the overall average. In the second instance, Russia receives an n/a as the commitment on the tsunami was reached at the G7 Finance Ministers Meeting, where Russia is not a member.

The interim results reveal that from the period following Sea Island until January 2005, G8 members (plus the EU) have complied with their priority commitments across the 18 major priority commitments 40% of the time (see Table A). This average is based on a scale whereby 100% equals perfect compliance and –100% means that the member governments are either non-compliant or are, in fact, doing the opposite of what they committed to.

The Overall Interim Compliance Score

This overall interim score of 40% for the Sea Island Summit of 2004 falls in the mid range between the interim score of 47% from Evian in 2003 and the interim score of 25% from Kananaskis in 2002.

Compliance by Country

Similar to both the Kananaskis and Evian interim results, the highest complying members across the 18 priority issue areas post–Sea Island are Canada and the United Kingdom, with a score tied at 50%. Joining the ranks of the compliance leaders this year are Germany and the EU, also scoring 50%. These results confirm trends found in earlier compliance reports suggesting that the countries next in the hosting rotation (in this case, the UK) are consistently among the highest to comply with commitments reached the year before. In second place is the United States, with a score of 44%. A second-place score for the U.S. places it in the same position as the period post-Evian. France and Italy are tied for third place at 39%, moving Italy up from its last-place finish at Evian and Kananaskis. Japan drops to second last with a score of 33%, while Russia falls to last place with an overall interim compliance score of 0. None of the G8 members score compliance results in the negative range.

The Compliance Gap by Country

Although compliance scores during the interim period vary by country, the study also finds that the compliance gap between member states for Sea Island falls in the mid range between the Evian and the Kananaskis results. The interim Kananaskis compliance report indicated a compliance gap between the G8 of 77% (with Canada at 77% and Italy at 0). The compliance gap between the highest and lowest complying members for the Evian results was only 25% (58% for Canada and 33% for Italy). For Sea Island, however, the compliance gap increases once again to 50%, with Canada, Germany and the UK all scoring 50% and Russia revealing an interim compliance score of 0.

Compliance by Issue Area

These interim results also indicate that compliance during this period varied considerably by issue area. Commitments focused on democracy assistance through the Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative as well as those on trade and debt relief for heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) score perfect compliance results across all G8 countries and the EU. Compliance scores are also high in the areas of energy (89%), support for the Iraqi elections, weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and regional security, each at 78%. Commitments on food security and peacebuilding in Africa both score above average at 67% and 44% respectively. Below average scores are revealed for world economy and infectious diseases/HIV/AIDS (each at 33%), as well as trade and technical assistance (22%) and transport security (11%). The environment, transnational crime and infectious diseases (polio) each score 0, while issues concerning terrorist financing score –0.11. Furthermore, the area of financing development reveals the worst compliance score with a –1.0, indicating that the G8 and the EU have not taken any concrete measures to fulfill their priority commitments in this issue area since Sea Island.

These findings reveal some striking differences with the interim results from Evian and Kananaskis where political security issues (primarily terrorism) yielded the highest compliance by the member states across both years. By contrast, terrorist financing has fallen within the negative range while debt relief has moved from the middle range in previous years to secure top marks post–Sea Island. The most interesting development, however, has been on the trade front, where trade initiatives – traditionally the lowest across the G8 – have risen to the top spot. Issues of the environment and global health continue to fall in the middle range, consistent with previous years.

Interim and Final Compliance Scores Compared

Although a comprehensive assessment cannot be made until the final compliance scores are in, to date, these interim Sea Island scores compare somewhat favourably with the overall compliance scores for Cologne 1999 (39%), Denver 1997 (27%) and Lyon 1996 (36%). Since 1996, only Evian 2003 (51%), Genoa 2001 (49.5%) Okinawa 2000 (81.4%) and Birmingham 1998 (45%) have yielded higher overall compliance scores.

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Special Considerations

In evaluating the results of this report, the following considerations should be kept in mind.

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Further Research and Reports

The information contained within this interim report provides G8 member countries and other stakeholders with an early indication of their compliance results to date, thereby setting the foundation for future action prior to the Gleneagles Sea Island Summit on July 8–10, 2005. As with previous compliance reports, this report has been produced as an invitation for others to provide additional or more complete information on country compliance with the interim results of the 2004 Sea Island commitments. As always, comments are welcomed and would be considered as part of an analytical reassessment. Please send your feedback to <g8@utoronto.ca>. A complete assessment of the compliance scores will be made available in the final report and posted on this web site by mid-June – approximately two weeks prior to the Gleneagles Summit, on June 6–8, 2005, in Scotland.

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Table A: 2004 Sea Island Interim Compliance Scores

  Canada  France Germany  Italy Japan Russia UK U.S. EU Individual Issue Average
BMENA: Democracy Assistance 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.00
BMENA: Iraqi Elections 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0.78
World Economy 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0.33
Trade: Doha 1 1 1 1 1 n/a 1 1 1 1.00
Trade: Technical Assistance 1 0 1 0 1 –1 0 0 0 0.22
Energy 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0.89
Environment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WMD 1 1 1 1 1 –1 1 1 1 0.78
Terrorist Financing 0 1 –1 –1 0 1 –1 0 0 –0.11
Transnational Crime 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Transport Security 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.11
Debt Relief 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.00
Financing Development –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1.00
Infectious Diseases: HIV/AIDS –1 1 1 1 –1 –1 1 1 1 0.33
Infectious Diseases: Polio 1 –1 –1 –1 0 1 1 –1 1 0
Pease Building in Africa 1 0 1 1 –1 0 1 1 0 0.44
Famine and Food Security in Africa 1 1 1 0 1 –1 1 1 1 0.67
Regional Security: Darfur 1 1 1 1 1 –1 1 1 1 0.78
Individual Country Average 0.50 0.39 0.50 0.39 0.33 0 0.50 0.44 0.50
Overall Country Average +0.40
Overall Issue Average +0.40
Overall Interim Compliance Average +0.40
2003 Evian Interim Compliance Score +0.47
2002 Kananaskis Interim Compliance Score +0.25

Note: The average score by issue area is the average of all countries’ compliance scores for that issue. The average score by country is the average of all issue area compliance scores for a given country. The overall compliance average is an average of the overall issue average and overall country average. Where information on a country’s compliance score for a given issue area was not available, the symbol "N/A" appears in the respective column and no compliance score is awarded. Countries were excluded from the averages if the symbol "N/A" appears in the respective column.

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Table B: 2004 Sea Island Interim Compliance Scores, with reference to the Indian Ocean Tsunami

  Canada  France Germany  Italy Japan Russia UK U.S. EU Individual Issue Average
BMENA: Democracy Assistance 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.00
BMENA: Iraqi Elections 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0.78
World Economy 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0.33
Trade: Doha 1 1 1 1 1 n/a 1 1 1 1.00
Trade: Technical Assistance 1 0 1 0 1 –1 0 0 0 0.22
Energy 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0.89
Environment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WMD 1 1 1 1 1 –1 1 1 1 0.78
Terrorist Financing 0 1 –1 –1 0 1 –1 0 0 –0.11
Transnational Crime 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Transport Security 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.11
Debt Relief 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.00
Financing Development –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1 –1.00
Infectious Diseases: HIV/AIDS –1 1 1 1 –1 –1 1 1 1 0.33
Infectious Diseases: Polio 1 –1 –1 –1 0 1 1 –1 1 0
Pease Building in Africa 1 0 1 1 –1 0 1 1 0 0.44
Famine and Food Security in Africa 1 1 1 0 1 –1 1 1 1 0.67
Regional Security: Darfur 1 1 1 1 1 –1 1 1 1 0.78
Asian Tsunami Assistance 0 0 1 0 1 n/a* 0 1 1 0.50
Individual Country Average 0.47 0.37 0.53 0.37 0.37 0 0.47 0.47 0.53
Overall Country Average +0.40
Overall Issue Average +0.40
Overall Interim Compliance Average +0.40
2003 Evian Interim Compliance Score +0.47
2002 Kananaskis Interim Compliance Score +0.25

Note: The average score by issue area is the average of all countries’ compliance scores for that issue. The average score by country is the average of all issue area compliance scores for a given country. The overall compliance average is an average of the overall issue average and overall country average. Where information on a country’s compliance score for a given issue area was not available, the symbol "N/A" appears in the respective column and no compliance score is awarded. Countries were excluded from the averages if the symbol "N/A" appears in the respective column.

* Russia’s score for compliance with its Asian Tsunami Assistance commitment was omitted since this commitment was made at the G7 Finance Ministers’ Meeting to which Russia is not a member. Nevertheless, Russia’s compliance performance is reviewed in the Appendix to this report as is all other G8 member-states’ compliance activities in this issue-area. Russia received a score of –1, however, this is not reflected in the calculations in this table.

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Bibliography on Compliance with G8 Commitments

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Chayes, Abram (1993). "On Compliance." International Organization 47(2): 175–205.

Chayes, Abram and Antonia Handler Chayes (1998). The New Sovereignty: Compliance with International Regulatory Agreements. Harvard University Press, Boston.

Chayes, Abram and Ronald Mitchell (1995). "Improving Compliance with the Climate Change Treaty," in Henry Lee, ed., Shaping National Responses to Climate Change: A Post-Rio Guide. Island Press, Washington DC.

Daniels, Joseph. (1993). The Meaning and Reliability of Economic Summit Undertakings. Garland Publishing: Hamden CT.

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G8 Research Group (2000). "Compliance with G8 Commitments: From Köln 1999 to Okinawa 2000." <www.g8.utoronto.ca/evaluations/2000okinawa/compliance> (February 2005).

G8 Research Group (1999). "Compliance with G8 Commitments: From Birmingham 1998 to Köln 1999." <www.g8.utoronto.ca/evaluations/1999koln/compliance> (February 2005).

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The Halifax Initiative. First Annual G7 Report Card on Bretton Woods Reform: Report on the Commitments Made by the G7 Leaders at the Halifax Summit, June 1995 (1996). Canadian Coalition for Global Economic Democracy, Ottawa.

Ikenberry, John (1988). "Market Solutions for State Problems: The International and Domestic Politics of American Oil Decontrol." International Organization 42 (Winter): 151–178.

Independent NGO Evaluations of National Plans for Climate Change Mitigation: G7 Countries – Summit Meeting, Halifax, June 1995 (1995). Report Coordinated by the United States Climate Action Network and Climate Network Europe.

Juricevic, Diana (2000). Compliance with G8 Commitments: Ascertaining the Degree of Compliance with Summit Debt and International Trade Commitments for Canada and the United States, 1996–1999." G8 Information Centre <www.g8.utoronto.ca/scholar/juricevic2000/index.html> (February 2005).

Juricevic, Diana (2000). "Controlling for Domestic-Level Commitments: An Analysis of the Authoritative National Commitments Made in Canada and the United States from 1995–2000." G8 Information Centre <www.g8.utoronto.ca/scholar/juricevic2000/juricevic.pdf>.

Kirton, John and Ella Kokotsis (2004). "Keeping Faith with Africa: Assessing Compliance with the G8’s Commitments at Kananaskis and Evian," in Princeton Lyman and Robert Browne, eds., Freedom, Prosperity and Security: The G8 Partnership with Africa. Council on Foreign Relations, New York.

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Kirton, John and Ella Kokotsis (2001). "Compliance with G8 Commitments: The Peace and Security and Conflict Prevention Agenda, Okinawa-Genoa." Paper prepared for the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade’s Policy Planning Division in preparation for the Canadian presidency of the G8 Foreign Ministers’ Process in 2002.

Kirton, John, Ella Kokotsis and Diana Juricevic (2003). "G7/G8 Commitments and Their Significance," in John Kirton, Michele Fratianni and Paola Savona, eds., Governing Global Finance: New Challenges, G7 and IMF Contributions. Ashgate, Aldershot.

Kirton, John, Ella Kokotsis and Diana Juricevic (2002). "Okinawa’s Promises Kept: The 2001 G8 Compliance Report," in John Kirton and Junichi Takase, eds., New Directions in Global Political Governance. Ashgate, Aldershot.

Kirton, John, Ella Kokotsis and Gina Stephens, with Diana Juricevic (2004). "The G8 and Conflict Prevention: Commitment, Compliance and Systemic Contribution," in John Kirton and Radoslava Stefanova, eds., The G8, the United Nations and Conflict Prevention. Ashgate, Aldershot.

Kokotsis, Ella (2004). "Compliance and the G8 Summits." G8 Online 2004, Lecture 3 <www.g8.utoronto.ca/g8online/2004/english/syllabus.html> (February 2005>

Kokotsis, Ella (2004). "Explaining G8 Effectiveness: The Democratic Institutionalist Model of Compliance with G8 Commitments." Paper prepared for the annual convention of the International Studies Association, Montreal, March 18.

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Schrecker, Ted and Ronald Labonte (in press). "What’s Politics Got to Do with It? Health, the G8 and the Global Economy," in Ichiro Kawachi and Sarah Wamala, eds., Globalisation and Health. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Von Furstenberg, George (1995). "Accountability and a Metric for Credibility and Compliance." Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics 15 (June): 304–325.

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Von Furstenberg, George and Joseph Daniels (1991). "Policy Undertakings by the Seven ‘Summit’ Countries: Ascertaining the Degree of Compliance." Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series of Public Policy 35: 267–308.

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